Mesoscale Discussion 1378
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...far northeastern Georgia...upstate South
   Carolina...western North Carolina...and much of central/western
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021818Z - 021915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms may pose a damaging-wind risk through the
   afternoon and early evening, although the threat is not expected to
   be widespread enough to necessitate a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Deep convection has developed very near the highest
   terrain of the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon -
   generally from near LYH to near AVL.  These storms are in an
   environment characterized by steep (9 C/km) low-level lapse rate,
   but meager mid-level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km), yielding
   around 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE.  30-40 kt mid-level flow will allow
   for storms to migrate northeastward and loosely organize into
   clusters and lines, potentially posing an isolated damaging-wind
   threat for the next few hours.  Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
   should keep most of the severe threat relatively isolated through
   the early evening, however.  The isolated nature of the threat
   should preclude a WW issuance, however.

   ..Cook/Bunting.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35388384 36068303 37258083 38317895 38787767 38447696
               37977707 37087764 35647992 34328253 34148316 34398351
               35388384