Mesoscale Discussion 1379
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021928Z - 022130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
   winds expected this afternoon/evening. One or two watches may be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows broad formation of cumulus in
   response to strong diabatic heating over terrain-favored areas of
   the central/southern Rockies. Farther east, low-level southeasterly
   up-slope flow has yielded surface dew point temperatures in the mid
   to upper 50s F. The diabatic heating is resulting in strong
   low-level lapse rates, approaching 8-9 C/km, and MLCAPE values near
   or exceeding 1500 J/kg along a north-south oriented corridor
   paralleling the Front Range. Meanwhile, moderate north-northwesterly
   flow aloft combined with the low-level southeasterly flow is
   resulting in 40-45 kt of ambient effective shear.

   The aforementioned trend in convective development is expected to
   continue into the afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms over
   a broad region. With time, storms should move off the high terrain
   and into the plains east of the Front Range. As this occurs, storms
   are expected to intensify in the more favorable CAPE/shear parameter
   space. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
   Given these expectations, one or two watches will be considered for
   parts of the region.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35600563 38080605 40670583 40920486 39730424 35560326
               34810363 34580498 35600563