Mesoscale Discussion 1380
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Far Southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022216Z - 030015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a
   couple more hours across parts of northwest Texas and far southwest
   Oklahoma. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.
   The threat is expected to be too localized and brief for weather
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
   place across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms
   have developed on the western edge of the moist airmass in parts of
   northwest Texas late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints in northwest
   Texas are generally in the 50s F which is contributing to MLCAPE of
   800 to 1200 J/kg, according to the RAP. In spite of this, the
   Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has about 30 kt of 0-6 km shear.
   This combined with steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for
   an isolated wind damage threat. The stronger cores could also be
   accompanied by hail. The threat should eventually diminish as
   surface temperatures gradually cool early this evening.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32919935 32670041 32650117 32910154 33280174 33980174
               34410163 34820113 35010050 35039981 34879927 34209890
               33459886 32919935