Mesoscale Discussion 1384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

   Areas affected...central/southeastern Montana and northern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031820Z - 031915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will pose an isolated damaging-wind risk
   this afternoon and early evening.  A WW issuance is not anticipated
   at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased over the
   past hour or so - particularly across northern and central Montana
   amidst a weak upslope flow regime.  Instability is limited across
   the region - primarily due to only modest low-level moisture (near
   50F dewpoints supporting 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE).  Nevertheless, lapse
   rates are steep across the region and the approach of an upstream
   mid-level shortwave and continued low-level upslope flow will foster
   additional isolated to scattered convection.  These storms will
   initially develop across higher terrain, but spread
   eastward/southeastward through the day in response to appreciable
   mid-level flow and deep shear.  Although one or two linear complexes
   may evolve from the ongoing convection, the limited nature of
   downstream instability and weak low-level flow should keep any
   severe threat generally isolated.  A WW is not currently anticipated
   at this time.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48471021 48830950 48950875 48510758 46950618 44950511
               44250551 43850656 43760784 44710886 46320996 47131004
               48471021