Mesoscale Discussion 1385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

   Areas affected...Northern SC Coast...South/Central NC Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031958Z - 032200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Probability for a few tornadoes is expected to increase
   and a watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass is in place across the coastal
   Carolinas ahead of Tropical Storm Isaias. Recent surface
   observations had temperatures in the low 80s amid upper 70s
   dewpoints. These conditions are yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   As of now, wind fields are relatively modest, with both the LTX and
   MHX VAD profiles showing weak low-level easterlies/southeasterlies
   beneath modest mid-level southeasterlies. Mid-level flow is expected
   to gradually increase as Isaias continues northward. This will
   result in wind profiles becoming more favorable for tornadogenesis.
   Main uncertainty will be whether or not updrafts can maintain enough
   strength/depth to realize the vertical shear. Even with this
   uncertainty, probability for a tornadoes will likely be high enough
   to merit a watch and trends will be monitored for most favorable
   issuance time.

   ..Mosier/Kerr.. 08/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34157782 33357920 33767951 34877851 35257713 34897671
               34507720 34157782