Mesoscale Discussion 1386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

   Areas affected...central/southern Wyoming...much of Colorado...and
   northern/northeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032012Z - 032145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of
   gusty winds approaching severe thresholds this afternoon and
   evening.  A WW issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated
   nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates development of
   convection initially along higher terrain across the discussion area
   this afternoon.  Though the storms have initially developed in areas
   containing a relatively dry boundary layer, the combination of
   modest low-level upslope flow beneath roughly 30 knots of
   north-northwesterly mid-level flow will allow for propagation of
   initial convection into lower-terrain areas where steep mid-level
   lapse rates (8.5C/km) will allow for a risk of damaging wind gusts
   and hail.  A slightly higher risk for damaging wind gusts will
   develop with any storms that can organize into linear segments and
   propagate southward, though the overall risk should remain isolated
   enough to preclude a WW issuance through the evening hours.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...

   LAT...LON   43000760 43580753 43640657 42760567 41470479 39550415
               38600371 37230364 36210386 35610463 35420559 35790628
               36870652 39130641 43000760