Mesoscale Discussion 1387
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

   Areas affected...Southwestern and south-central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032336Z - 040130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible into the early
   evening. Large hail is possible, but should be less of a threat
   relative to wind gusts. This marginal threat is not expected to
   require a WW.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of early convection, temperatures have
   risen into the low 90s F across parts of southwestern and
   south-central Montana. With the continued influence of an upstream
   shortwave within central/southern Idaho, the ongoing cluster of
   storms is expected to be maintained into the early evening. With
   low-level lapse rates having been able to steepen with several hours
   of heating, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Potential
   exists for isolated large hail as well given 35-50 kts of effective
   shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. However, the hail threat will
   be limited by multicellular storm mode as well as MLCAPE only
   500-1000 J/kg. Farther north, convection has also redeveloped, but
   the airmass has not been able to recover due to lingering cloud
   cover during the day. The severe threat should be much more limited
   in north-central Montana. No WW is expected for this activity.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   44321170 44101279 44831313 45211286 45771186 46271112
               46521039 46570915 45960789 45100801 44890912 44321170