Mesoscale Discussion 1390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...much of eastern Virginia...Maryland...Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 040541Z - 040815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes will develop north across eastern
   Virginia and the Chesapeake region, and a new watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Bands of supercells with tornado threat persist over
   eastern NC northeast of the cyclone center. Objective analysis shows
   effective SRH 300-500 m2/s2 in this area, where MLCAPE is around
   1000 J/kg. A moist air mass is already in place downstream from VA
   into the Chesapeake. Thus, the rapid increase in low-level shear is
   likely to support a continued tornado threat tonight and into the
   early morning hours.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37377731 38927713 39397685 39537645 39567593 39457570
               39077527 38797499 38487496 37927520 37317556 37097581
               36977630 36887685 37007721 37377731