Mesoscale Discussion 1395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...Much of NJ...Southern NY/Hudson Valley...New York
   City...Western/Central Long Island...Southern CT

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

   Valid 041513Z - 041645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes currently continues across much
   of NJ, with the threat then transitioning into southeast
   NY...NYC...and western Long Island over the next two hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and radar/satellite imagery
   place the center of Tropical Storm Isaias over the central DE/MD
   border. Over the past several hours, rain band arcing from about 80
   miles northeast of the center to about 130 miles due east of the
   center has been responsible for numerous low-topped supercells, a
   few of which maintained enough strength once ashore to produce
   tornadoes. The deeper cells within the band offshore do not
   currently appear to have the same structure or intensity as these
   earlier storms. However, the environment remains strongly sheared,
   particularly at low-levels. Recent KDIX VAD data has 700-800 m2/s2
   of 0-1 km SRH and weather spotters recently confirmed a tornado in
   Ocean County NJ. 

   Best estimates of the motion of the band is
   northward/north-northeastward at 35-40 kt. This motion brings the
   band through much of central NJ by 1600Z and into central Long
   Island by 1700Z. Storm motion of storms within the band is
   north-northwestward around 40 to 50 kt, with right-moving supercells
   moving slightly slower and more northerly.

   ..Mosier.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   40047540 41097455 41327395 41347335 41137276 40807282
               40337370 39457438 40047540