Mesoscale Discussion 1396
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...Northern CT...Southern VT...Southern NH...MA...RI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 041534Z - 041700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly supportive of
   tornadoes over the next few hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be
   issued within the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Wind fields are expected to strengthen significantly
   across the area over the next few hours as Tropical Storm Isaias
   continues northward into southern New England. A very moist and
   modestly buoyant air mass is already in place, and a few stronger
   storms have been noted over northern portions of the region in the
   past hour. These storms were likely a result of the strong warm-air
   advection in place, and were elevated above the boundary-layer as a
   result. Air mass along the coastal areas is already supportive of
   surface-based storms, with more area expected to become supportive
   as this higher theta-e air moves further inland. 

   Thus far, most of the deep convective has remained within a band arc
   80 to 100 miles from the center. This band is quickly moving
   northward, and will likely reach portions of southern New England by
   17Z. Additionally, any development ahead of this band will be in a
   very favorable kinematic environment. Given this potential, a
   tornado watch will likely be issued within the next hour for much of
   southern New England.

   ..Mosier/Kerr.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41637196 41967335 43087297 42617015 41117066 41637196