Mesoscale Discussion 1397
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...western Nebraska...eastern
   Colorado...far western Kansas...northeastern New Mexico...and
   portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041852Z - 042045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection will increase in coverage and intensity across
   much of the discussion area this afternoon with an attendant severe
   hail/wind threat.   Convective trends are being monitored for a
   possible WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery indicates a gradual increase
   in towering cumulus over higher terrain, with a few cells beginning
   to show radar echoes and lightning over southeastern Wyoming and
   northeastern New Mexico.  The cells are in an environment
   characterized by steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints, which is
   supporting 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE along and east of the Front Range. 
   Additionally, low-level upslope flow - most focused near/northeast
   of a surface flow near COS and weak mid-level shortwaves near the
   region were providing lift for initiation along western portions of
   the discussion area.

   Over time, storms are expected to mature into a mix of clusters,
   cells, and linear segments owing to northwesterly flow aloft and
   40-45 knots of deep shear across the region.  Veering of flow with
   height is most pronounced across eastern/northeastern Colorado
   northeast of the surface low and may also provide enough ambient
   vorticity for storms to rotate.  Large hail (perhaps significant in
   north-central through eastern Colorado) and damaging wind gusts are
   the primary threats with this activity, with the only lingering
   concern for issuing a WW being the extent of convective coverage and
   attendant severe risk.  A landspout tornado or two cannot be
   completely ruled out - especially early in the convective life cycle
   across northeastern Colorado.  Convective trends are being monitored
   for a possible WW issuance by/before 20-21Z.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   42320606 42580522 42440337 41810261 39170178 35950095
               35490181 35630348 36360451 38170507 40680584 41950617
               42320606