Mesoscale Discussion 1400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the central and southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

   Valid 042216Z - 050015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large to very large hail is possible with a cluster of
   splitting supercells east of Fort Collins, CO. This activity will
   pose the greatest risk for hail this evening as it moves SSE/SE this
   evening. Increasing convective coverage is expected in southeastern
   CO where storms could grow upscale and move into the TX/OK
   Panhandles later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...The most robust convection in WW 418 exists within
   northeastern Colorado, just east of Fort Collins. There, a cluster
   of intense supercell storms have exhibited potential for large/very
   large hail per regional radar imagery with a measured 2 inch
   hailstone reports near Carr, CO. While weak capping does remain to
   the east, these mature cells are expected to continue for the next
   few hours to the southeast. Storm motions will be generally to the
   SSE/SE, but, as has already occurred, a few left-moving storms may
   move more easterly. Large/very large hail will remain a concern with
   these storms along along with damaging wind gusts. In time, this
   activity may grow more upscale where wind gusts would become more of
   a concern.

   Farther south, where deep-layer shear is weaker, storms have thus
   far not intensified. However, with convective coverage beginning to
   increase, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should fuel potential for large
   hail and damaging wind gusts. High-resolution guidance continues to
   indicated this area is favored for upscale growth into southeastward
   propagating linear segment. Given the deep boundary layer and
   multicellular mode, this solution is plausible. How far to the
   southeast the severe threat will exist this evening is still
   somewhat in question, but this area will need to be monitored for
   possible local WW extensions.

   ..Wendt.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37470485 38660487 39910525 40850545 42060532 42390414
               40580221 38530177 36330194 35740215 35640310 36420450
               36660480 37470485