Mesoscale Discussion 1405
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051737Z - 051930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widespread multi-cell storm development with the
   possibility of a damaging wind gust or two will be possible this
   afternoon. A weather watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite data showed showers and weak
   thunderstorms  developing along a broad frontal zonal located along
   the spine of the southern Appalachians. Additional storm development
   appears likely this afternoon, given warm and moist surface
   conditions, lift along the front, and developing orographic
   circulations. Upper-air support for convection is weak and is
   forecast to continue decreasing as the closed low over southern
   Canada continues to retreat northward. Effective shear is forecast
   to remain relatively weak, despite the moderately unstable
   conditions present with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. As a result, a
   multi-cellular storm mode is expected. A few of the stronger storms
   may develop sufficiently strong downdrafts to generate near severe
   criteria outflow winds. Due to the limited coverage and severe
   potential, a weather watch is likely not needed.

   ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35838344 36678208 37058127 37138053 36817992 36087983
               35578044 34118247 33858311 33738382 34018407 34398426
               35038431 35838344