Mesoscale Discussion 1407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

   Areas affected...southeast texas southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052012Z - 052145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms perhaps capable of strong downburst winds
   will be possible this afternoon and early evening. A weather watch
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...20z radar observations showed a resurgence in
   convective intensity associated with a cluster of thunderstorms that
   moved across eastern North Texas earlier this morning. These storms
   are associated with a convectively enhanced shortwave trough on the
   edge of the ridge of high pressure over the Southwest. Additional
   storm development appears probable across western Louisiana and far
   southeast Texas given subtle forcing for ascent from the shortwave,
   a moderately unstable airmass of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and
   little remaining convective inhibition. Vertical shear is expected
   to remain weak with stronger mid-level flow lagging behind the
   ongoing storms limiting the potential for convective organization.
   However, consolidating downdrafts could be strong enough to produce
   isolated damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. Limited
   coverage and the forecast uncertainty suggest a weather watch is
   likely not needed.

   ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29969554 30719540 31599473 31689357 31349264 29749141
               29549132 29419178 29489205 29709349 29249473 29969554