Mesoscale Discussion 1410
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Maryland into Delaware and southern New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060956Z - 061200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms is likely to persist toward the coast,
   with strong wind gusts likely.

   DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms associated with
   the right entrance region of the upper jet is currently crossing the
   bay and will continue east toward DE. Meanwhile, smaller cells are
   forming over southern NJ, near a stationary front. South of this
   front, dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to around 1500 J/kg
   MUCAPE, and little if any inhibition.

   While VWPs show relatively weak winds in the low levels, modest
   westerlies aloft and forward propagation will continue to push these
   storms east. Given favorable instability downstream, the system is
   likely to maintain intensity, with strong wind gusts likely. An
   isolated severe gust cannot be ruled out.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38527544 38247622 38307643 38627648 39087648 39337640
               39457627 39717485 39797397 39447414 38977472 38757478
               38527544