Mesoscale Discussion 1411
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern AL...northern GA into
   western SC...western/central NC...southern/central VA...and far
   southern MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061808Z - 062045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly isolated damaging winds
   should persist through the early evening. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Convection that has formed along the spine of the
   southern/central Appalachians this afternoon should continue to
   spread generally eastward as a weak upper trough persists over the
   eastern CONUS. The area from northern GA into central VA has become
   moderately unstable owing to diurnal heating of a rather moist
   low-level airmass, with MLCAPE 1500-2500+ J/kg estimated by latest
   mesoanalysis. A nearly stationary surface front was also analyzed
   across this region. Additional storms may form along this boundary
   through the early afternoon. Low-level flow is expected to remain
   weak, but around 20-30 kt of southwesterly mid-level winds and
   similar values of effective bulk shear should promote modest storm
   organization.

   Clusters and multicells should be the dominant storm modes, with
   steepened low-level lapse rates encouraging strong/gusty downdraft
   winds to the surface. Current expectations are for most of these
   winds to remain sub-severe, but isolated damaging wind gusts may
   still occur with the stronger storms. Slightly better mid-level flow
   is forecast to be present over parts of southern/central VA in the
   vicinity of the weak stalled front. A greater concentration of
   storms may ultimately materialize through the early evening across
   this region, perhaps posing a slightly better chance for severe wind
   gusts. Regardless, the overall severe threat still appears fairly
   marginal/isolated, with watch issuance unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Kerr.. 08/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   33938173 33468344 33558504 33868590 34498574 35028412
               36068194 37508024 38557901 38787816 38727724 38467663
               38027612 37567625 36867697 35727839 34358067 33938173