Mesoscale Discussion 1412
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming and much of Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061845Z - 062045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered convection is deepening within an
   environment supportive of a few severe wind gusts and hail.  A WW
   issuance is not anticipated at this time, although convective trends
   are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Despite mid/upper ridging across much of the discussion
   area, surface insolation has removed inhibition sufficiently to
   allow for isolated to scattered convective development particularly
   near/south of the Denver Metro area.  These storms are in a
   steep-lapse-rate environment (8-9 deg C/km low to mid-tropospheric
   lapse rates), with just enough low-level moisture to support weak to
   moderate buoyancy along the immediate Front Range.  Westerly flow
   aloft of 20-25 knots will support eastward movement/propagation of
   convection into lower elevations, where slightly stronger buoyancy
   (due to higher low-level moisture) exists.  Any storms that can grow
   upscale into clusters or linear segments will have a greater chance
   of interacting with the stronger buoyancy resulting in a somewhat
   greater severe threat, although ridging aloft may keep storms
   isolated enough to preclude a concentrated threat prompting a WW
   issuance.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

   LAT...LON   42050702 42630647 42770547 42300440 40620253 39680208
               38230231 37280344 37100435 37350502 38010545 39200589
               40010648 42050702