Mesoscale Discussion 1413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...much of western/central Montana and a small part of
   northeastern Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061953Z - 062200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based convection capable of damaging wind gusts will
   expand northeastward across much of the discussion area this
   afternoon/early evening.  A WW issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Lightning-producing convection has deepened within a
   regime characterized by deep southwesterly flow aloft.  Steep low-
   and mid-level lapse rates are in place across the region, with
   values exceeding 9 C/km - especially in areas undisturbed by
   convective downdrafts where temperatures are currently 80+ F.  The
   lapse rates and appreciable storm movement will allow for occasional
   downbursts near convection that could produce wind damage -
   especially near clusters or linear segments that can organize
   through the early evening.  Lift associated with mid-level shortwave
   troughs migrating across the region should also promote convective
   development through the afternoon as well.  The threat should remain
   isolated enough to preclude any WW issuances, although convective
   trends will be monitored.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   48311024 48461146 48081285 47351405 46091442 44981415
               44731239 45051008 45170854 45620749 46740759 47970881
               48311024