Mesoscale Discussion 1414
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central into eastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062201Z - 070000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and perhaps a couple severe
   hailstones remain possible for the rest of the afternoon into early
   evening. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated given the
   relatively isolated severe coverage expected.

   DISCUSSION...Mainly multicellular (occasionally transient
   supercellular) convection continues to increase in coverage and
   intensity across portions of central VA. Hail up to 2 inches in
   diameter and damaging gusts have already been reported over the past
   couple of hours. Current KLWX and mosaic MRMS dual-polarimetric
   radar data suggest that severe hail may still be ongoing with the
   more organized storms, given 50-60 dBZ reflectivity observed over
   the -20C layer, and occasional, brief mid to low-level rotation.
   Given over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE (fueled primarily by deep moisture) and
   35 knots of effective bulk shear (per latest Mesoanalysis), isolated
   severe hail/damaging gust risk is expected to continue into the
   early evening hours. The latest runs of the HRRR and
   Warn-On-Forecast ensemble guidance also depict a localized, enhanced
   corridor of organized convection and some severe potential across
   central VA through at least 00Z, where observed visible satellite
   has indicated a narrow corridor of continued diurnal heating. 

   Nonetheless, the localized coverage of potential severe precludes a
   WW issuance at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36617954 37787876 38577795 38507721 38107649 37457644
               37027697 36787790 36427876 36617954