Mesoscale Discussion 1415
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...parts of the central and northern High Plains into
   western SD/western NEB/northwestern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062313Z - 070115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...isolated/locally severe storms will continue across the
   central and northern High Plains region, and will gradually shift
   into the lower Plains this evening.  Stronger cells will be capable
   of producing large hail locally, along with damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated storms evolving across
   the High Plains from central and eastern Montana southward across
   eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas.  This entire region
   is somewhat homogeneous in terms of the kinematic and thermodynamic
   environment, though the best CAPE/shear combination is indicated
   from eastern Wyoming south to eastern Colorado, and eastward into
   the lower central Plains.

   Despite greater moisture/instability across the lower Plains,
   capping should continue to limit eastward progression of storms at
   least until this evening, when a southerly low-level jet develops. 
   In the mean time, veering/increasing flow with height is yielding
   moderate shear, sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts, and
   attendant risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts with a
   couple of the strongest storms.  Greatest storm coverage in the
   short term should remain across northeastern Colorado and vicinity,
   where several outflows/outflow intersections should continue to
   support new updraft development.

   As storms shift eastward this evening, aided by the increasing
   low-level jet, some upscale growth into small clusters may occur. 
   Still, degree of severe risk should remain limited.  Overall, severe
   storm coverage through the evening appears likely to remain too low
   to warrant WW issuance, though we will continue to monitor
   convective evolution for any signs of potentially greater
   severe-weather risk that could necessitate reconsideration.

   ..Goss/Dial.. 08/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44980530 45380437 44760298 43660175 42050100 40160087
               39050165 38650317 38760407 40350452 41990452 43250518
               43940571 44980530