Mesoscale Discussion 1416
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

   Areas affected...western South Dakota vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070131Z - 070230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are organizing linearly over extreme southeast
   Montana/far northeast Wyoming. Some accompanying increasing in wind
   gust potential has occurred, but need for WW issuance still appears
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show storms growing
   upscale linearly across the northern High Plains, near a surface
   warm front lying northwest to southeast across South Dakota.  With a
   pool of upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints just downstream from the
   ongoing storms contributing to an axis of 2500 to 3000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE along the boundary, storms will likely continue
   over the next couple of hours, and possibly beyond as the nocturnal
   low-level jet strengthens this evening.

   Given the degree of CAPE, and moderate mid-level flow (around 30 kt
   at mid-cloud depth) locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible
   over the next 1 to 2 hours.  However, as capping gradually increases
   this evening, the already limited severe risk may further diminish,
   which would preclude any need for WW consideration.

   ..Goss/Dial.. 08/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45500446 45820365 45600270 44970169 44170147 43300254
               43270423 43580498 44660459 45500446