Mesoscale Discussion 1418
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern ND...extreme northeastern
   SD...and northern/central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071930Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing threat for large hail, severe wind gusts,
   and perhaps a tornado should occur this afternoon and evening. Watch
   issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is ongoing near the ND/MN border
   this afternoon. Modest ascent associated with a mid-level vorticity
   maximum related to the MCV and persistent low-level warm advection
   will likely encourage robust convective initiation across far
   eastern ND into western MN within the next couple of hours. Some
   clearing of low clouds to the east of the MCV, coupled with
   increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates,
   are contributing to an increase in buoyancy across parts of
   southeastern ND into central MN and vicinity. Current expectations
   are for MLCAPE to reach 1500-2500 J/kg by peak afternoon heating,
   and for convective inhibition to become negligible in the vicinity
   of the MCV around 21-22Z.

   A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels
   will likely support storm organization, with around 30-35 kt of
   effective bulk shear probable. Initial storm development along/near
   the ND/MN border may be supercellular, with a threat for both large
   hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a tornado or two also
   appears possible with this initially discrete convection, as
   low-level winds and related effective SRH will be modestly enhanced
   by the close proximity of the MCV. Later this afternoon and into the
   evening, storms may have a tendency to grow upscale into a small
   bowing line as a south-southwesterly low-level jet modestly
   strengthens over southern/central MN. The threat for severe/damaging
   winds would potentially increase across parts of northern/central MN
   if storms evolve as forecast. The potential for additional storms to
   develop across the warm sector to the south/southwest of the MCV
   remains unclear, as a low-level temperature inversion may inhibit
   updrafts. Regardless, watch issuance may be needed in the next
   couple of hours pending signs of surface-based convective initiation
   near the MCV.

   ..Gleason/Kerr.. 08/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45599629 45869692 46599732 47169718 47509642 47459444
               47299355 46889238 46329240 45869281 45559331 45359462
               45599629