Mesoscale Discussion 1419
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020

   Areas affected...central North Dakota and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072309Z - 080115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development across central North
   Dakota may be accompanied by local risk for gusty/damaging winds
   and/or hail, but WW issuance seems unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a line of
   TCU/developing CB over west-central North Dakota, along a weak
   surface cool front. The storm development is being aided by
   large-scale ascent brushing the area -- per WV imagery -- associated
   with a vigorous upper low near the Alberta/Saskatchewan border
   moving east-northeastward with time.  With a moist warm sector ahead
   of the boundary, and 1500 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, expect
   isolated/vigorous storms to evolve, fueled by the available
   instability.

   With that said, overall storm coverage is expected to remain
   limited.  Subsidence in the wake of the MCV now over northwestern
   Minnesota this afternoon has contributed to weak capping -- remnants
   of which should limit storm coverage/intensity to some degree --
   especially into the evening, in tandem with diurnal
   cooling/stabilization of the boundary layer.  In addition,
   deep-layer flow -- though veering with height -- remains relatively
   modest in intensity, with only 20 to 30 kt westerlies indicated at
   mid levels.  Thus, without more substantial kinematic support for
   convective organization, and the aforementioned, minor hindrance of
   lingering capping, overall severe risk will likely remain both
   limited and isolated, likely precluding any need for WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Dial.. 08/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45920274 47150182 47870175 48930052 48899908 47909866
               46689855 45700081 45710170 45920274