Mesoscale Discussion 1422
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern SD into western/northern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081706Z - 081900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may
   persist through the early afternoon with widely spaced storms. Watch
   issuance appears unlikely for now, but trends will be closely
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has persisted through the morning along or
   just behind a surface cold front across far eastern SD and northern
   MN. An MCV from earlier storms currently over southeastern ND should
   continue east-northeastward into northern/central MN this afternoon.
   The 12Z sounding from ABR shows a very strong cap in the low levels,
   and the storms occurring across far eastern SD may remain elevated
   through much of the day. RAP forecast soundings suggest the
   low-level inversion is less pronounced with northward extent into
   northern MN, and there may be a slightly better chance for
   surface-based storms across this area.

   Steep mid-level lapse rates have overspread the frontal zone, and
   2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is already present at 17Z. Modestly
   enhanced mid-level winds associated with the MCV and shown in recent
   VWPs from KABR should promote storm organization with any storms
   that can persist or develop along/near the front this afternoon.
   Given this favorable combination of moderate to strong instability
   and sufficient deep-layer shear, isolated instances of large hail
   and severe wind gusts appears to be the primary threats with the
   more robust storms. Main uncertainty is overall storm coverage along
   the front given the pronounced cap, especially with southward
   extent. Widespread cloudiness across western/central MN may also
   limit the development of steep low-level lapse rates, slow diurnal
   heating, and delay the erosion of the cap. Given these
   uncertainties, watch issuance does not seem likely at this time,
   although observational and convective trends will be closely
   monitored.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46489384 46159407 44959530 44479650 44549725 44819764
               45969644 47069580 47459518 47429393 46989375 46489384