Mesoscale Discussion 1426
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

   Areas affected...Extreme east-central CO into northwest KS/far
   southwest NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082155Z - 090000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible into early
   evening, with a threat of locally severe wind gusts and perhaps
   marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, thunderstorms have recently developed from
   extreme east-central CO into northwest KS near a surface boundary,
   with strong heating on either side of the boundary continuing to
   erode SBCINH across the area. While this area is south of the
   stronger flow, mid/upper-level southwesterlies are sufficiently
   strong to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, which will support at
   least brief updraft organization with any sustained cells. 

   A hot, well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates
   will support a threat of gusty outflow winds (potentially severe)
   with the strongest storms. Some hail cannot be ruled out as well,
   especially with any cells that can move eastward or northeastward
   into a region of somewhat greater buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
   versus 500-1000 J/kg where storms have initiated). Given the
   marginal deep-layer shear and greater downstream CINH, the magnitude
   and areal extent of the threat are expected to remain rather
   limited, so watch issuance is considered unlikely.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 08/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38690260 39330235 39750212 39990196 40050188 40140164
               40230086 40210050 39950042 39380046 38940073 38640127
               38540159 38440209 38360260 38690260