Mesoscale Discussion 1427
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeast Minnesota into western
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082200Z - 090000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and occasional large hail may
   accompany an eastward moving thunderstorm cluster. The severe threat
   is expected to remain isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A convective cluster, forward propagated by an eastward
   surging cold pool, is currently traversing a quasi-stationary
   baroclinic zone. Localized forcing for ascent along this boundary
   will likely support continued eastward movement of the
   aforementioned convective cluster, with potential renewed
   multicellular development along the clusters forward flank in the
   near term. Given the overall weak shear profile, severe potential is
   expected to remain relatively limited. Nonetheless, steep lapse
   rates throughout a deep layer of the troposphere are contributing to
   well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Downdrafts contributing to the
   aforementioned cold pool will have the greatest potential to support
   a few damaging gusts, while the most vigorous updrafts along the
   forward flank of the cluster will have the greatest potential to
   produce severe hail.

   Nonetheless, while the latest high-resolution model guidance has not
   depicted the ongoing cluster relatively well, synoptic scale forcing
   is not strong. When also considering the weak shear environment, the
   severe threat is expected to remain isolated overall, and a WW
   issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43699358 44419390 44959347 44849205 44538989 44258941
               43598930 43188963 43299131 43429307 43699358