Mesoscale Discussion 1432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 091648Z - 091745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue across northeast
   North Dakota and eventually move into northwest Minnesota.
   Additional thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon across
   portions of eastern North Dakota as well. A severe thunderstorm
   watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Midday elevated thunderstorms continue across northeast
   North Dakota. These thunderstorms appear to be developing within a
   moisture gradient located between 850-700 millibars. Effective
   deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will support episodic
   strengthening of thunderstorm updrafts sufficient to produce hail.
   With time, continued low-level heating and moistening will favor a
   transition to more surface-based convection with an increase threat
   for large hail and strong/damaging thunderstorm winds.

   Farther west, a surface cold front associated with a mid-level
   trough across southern Canada was located across central North
   Dakota. As this front moves east, the combination of increasing
   convergence, strong-to-extreme surface-based instability, and
   decreasing convective inhibition will allow for additional
   thunderstorm development along the front. Although the kinematic
   environment will support supercells, linear forcing associated with
   the front will tend to favor more multi-cell/line segments with
   time. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out in this type of
   environment.

   Given the current kinematic and thermodynamic environment already in
   place and the expectation of the maintenance of ongoing
   thunderstorms and additional thunderstorm development, a severe
   thunderstorm watch is likely.

   ..Marsh/Grams.. 08/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48319899 49089788 49069454 48039414 46869664 46389827
               46949937 48319899