Mesoscale Discussion 1434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern IA into southern WI
   and far northern IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091830Z - 092030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and hail threat may exist with
   storms moving eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A small north/south oriented line of storms has
   recently developed over far northeastern IA on the southern fringes
   of large-scale ascent associated with an MCV over MN. Recent VWPs
   from KARX show some enhancement to the southwesterly flow in the 0-3
   km layer. The airmass downstream of ongoing convection continues to
   destabilize, with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg present per 18Z
   mesoanalysis estimates. There appears to be some potential for
   modest storm organization through the afternoon as this activity
   spreads eastward across southern WI and perhaps far northern IL.
   Current expectations are for the deep-layer shear to remain fairly
   modest, with an isolated damaging wind threat possible given the
   mainly linear mode. Some hail may also occur given the moderate to
   locally strong instability present owing to steep mid-level lapse
   rates. The overall severe threat will probably remain too
   isolated/marginal to warrant watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   42028911 42029003 42439141 42719129 43659139 43769028
               43648923 43328867 42238871 42028911