Mesoscale Discussion 1436
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northern WI and Upper MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 092046Z - 092215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...There still appears to be some potential for severe storms
   to develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...The large-scale ascent associated with a remnant MCV
   over MN has supported isolated strong to severe storms across far
   northwestern WI into western Lake Superior and the MN Arrowhead
   earlier this afternoon. More robust storm development has not yet
   occurred across the still destabilizing warm sector over much of
   northern WI and western/central Upper MI. It still appears possible
   that strong to severe convection may yet occur across this region
   over the next couple of hours, as some recent signs of convective
   development have been noted across far northwestern WI immediately
   ahead of the MCV. If storms were to develop and remain sustained,
   they would encounter a favorable thermodynamic environment
   characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Around 30-35 kt of
   effective bulk shear would support storm organization, with
   sufficient low-level flow for perhaps some tornado concern with
   semi-discrete cells. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds would
   be a threat as convection develops eastward across northern WI into
   western/central Upper MI later this afternoon and into the evening.
   It still remains somewhat unclear how many storms will form across
   this region. Given this uncertainty, watch issuance remains
   possible, but signs of increasing convective coverage and intensity
   would be needed for watch probabilities to increase further.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45349173 45879192 46609179 46949101 46968939 47158880
               47028834 46328831 45368865 45138909 45139087 45349173