Mesoscale Discussion 1438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas into southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092234Z - 100030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple severe
   hailstones may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not
   expected given the isolated, brief nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...A southward surging outflow boundary, originating from
   an earlier MCS/associated cold pool, has recently resulted in the
   initiation of isolated, mainly multicellular convection across
   portions of southeast KS into southern MO. Temperatures in the 90s,
   with low to mid 70s dewpoints, characterize the airmass ahead of the
   outflow boundary, resulting in 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Weak deep-layer
   flow and resultant vertical shear suggest that even the more intense
   storms will struggle to organize and sustain themselves in the
   ambient environment. However, latest mesoanalysis depicts locally
   stronger low-level shear in close proximity to the boundary, which
   may encourage brief instances of updraft rotation. As such, brief
   periods of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple severe hail stones
   may exist. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain
   isolated and short-lived overall, with the latest HRRR runs not
   depicting much in the way of further convective development. As
   such, a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38469692 38159571 37759340 37719171 38039048 37789034
               37639030 37379031 37019045 36699068 36399103 36159193
               36199260 36629367 37019511 37559645 38469692