Mesoscale Discussion 1439
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0701 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far north-northeast Wisconsin into the
   western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100001Z - 100200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
   accompany the stronger storms. The isolated, brief nature of the
   severe threat suggests that a WW issuance may not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete cells and cellular cluster have recently
   experienced a modest uptick in intensity across far northern
   Wisconsin in closer proximity to the center of an MCV based on
   trends via the latest mosaic MRMS composite radar data. These storms
   are approaching an ambient environment characterized by 7+ C/km
   low-level lapse rates (per latest Mesoanalysis) and near 70F surface
   dewpoints (based on METAR observations), contributing to 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE, with up to 200 J/kg concentrated in the lowest 3km. In
   addition, modest veering and strengthening of the winds with height
   in the lowest 3km are contributing to 30-35 knots of effective bulk
   shear and 100 m2/s2 effective SRH, with decently curved hodographs
   noted in the latest RAP forecast soundings. 

   As such, some severe threat may accompany any of the stronger,
   longer lasting storms, particularly with storms that can remain
   discrete. The primary threat would be damaging gusts given the
   steeper low-level lapse rates. However, any storm that can become
   highly organized may be able to take advantage of the stronger
   low-level CAPE/shear to support the development of a brief tornado
   or two. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain
   localized, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   45969094 46349084 46669047 46888985 47078875 46978788
               46728741 46458742 46108775 45838818 45728895 45739015
               45969094