Mesoscale Discussion 1440
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest into north-central NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100038Z - 100215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated thunderstorm development is possible
   this evening. Any sustained storm would pose a threat of wind/hail,
   though coverage of any severe threat remains highly uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...At 0030Z, a thunderstorm has recently initiated in
   Arthur County, Nebraska along a weak cold front. The environment in
   this area is characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
   buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-4000 kg based on 00Z LBF sounding and
   recent mesoanalyses), but also some convective inhibition, which
   will only increase with time for surface-based parcels. Given the
   capping and lack of substantial large-scale ascent across the
   region, thunderstorm coverage across this region may remain quite
   isolated, though the favorable instability and effective shear of
   25-35 kt will support a conditional threat of severe wind/hail with
   any sustained cell. 

   Coverage of storms may tend to increase later tonight, as the
   primary synoptic cold front approaches the region, though any later
   activity would likely tend to be somewhat elevated. While the
   environment will remain conditionally favorable for much of the
   evening, concerns about convective coverage make watch issuance
   unlikely at this time.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41470204 42040067 42529969 42739935 42949906 42649845
               42339783 41869818 41449875 41079937 41010018 40970087
               40860175 41100192 41470204