Mesoscale Discussion 1441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0811 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...A portion of southern MN into far western WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100111Z - 100245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this evening, which
   may pose some severe hail/wind threat. A greater coverage of storms
   is possible later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...At 01Z, deep convection is attempting to develop along
   an effective warm front draped from southern MN into western WI.
   Large-scale ascent is weak across the region, though an apparent
   zone of weaker ascent which earlier generated some weak elevated
   convection to the north may be aiding initiation along the boundary.
   If surface-based convection can be sustained, MLCAPE of 1500-3000
   J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt (noted on 00Z MPX sounding and
   recent mesoanalyses) will support organized updrafts with a
   conditional threat of severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. 

   Confidence is rather low in the coverage of storms prior to 03Z,
   though watch issuance is possible if trends support the potential
   for multiple strong storms near the boundary. A greater coverage of
   storms is possible later tonight as the primary cold front moves
   into the region, which may pose some hail/wind risk as well, though
   the timing of any later threat remains uncertain at this time.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44919459 45129385 45209340 45239298 45159255 44949243
               44709245 44509261 44419301 44419342 44429383 44489416
               44569442 44639458 44919459