Mesoscale Discussion 1442
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1011 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Michigan Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100311Z - 100345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or brief tornadoes may accompany the
   stronger circulations embedded within a QLCS. The line is expected
   to gradually weaken as it approaches a more stable air mass. Given
   the brevity of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...A well organized QLCS, with an embedded book-end vortex
   at the northern portion of the line, and an embedded circulation
   just north of the WI/MI border, continues to track eastward within a
   modestly sheared/unstable airmass. The southern circulation has been
   associated with a few TDSs, suggesting that a few tornadoes may have
   already occurred. Given the modest instability and shear in place
   across the central portions of Upper MI, along with the current
   storm mode, a couple more brief tornadoes are possible in addition
   to a few damaging gusts. Otherwise, the line is expected to move
   into a more stable airmass downstream, where subsequent weakening is
   expected. Given that the severe threat is expected to temper with
   time, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   45988847 46888820 46768649 46768495 46178484 45668580
               45468706 45598804 45988847