Mesoscale Discussion 1443
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast NE...Southeast SD...Northern
   IA...Southern MN...Western WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100359Z - 100630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase overnight as a cold
   front moves into the region. Some severe wind/hail risk will
   accompany these storms, though uncertainty remains regarding how
   organized the threat will be. Watch issuance is possible for some
   portion of this area.

   DISCUSSION...At 0345Z, strong thunderstorms are ongoing in the Twin
   Cities vicinity, where hail up to 2 inches in diameter was reported
   earlier in Carver County. Another area of convection is slowly
   intensifying across southeast SD, in the vicinity of a surface
   boundary. As the primary cold front moves into the region overnight,
   an increase in storm coverage is expected, with one or more clusters
   potentially evolving with time. Steep lapse rates will support
   moderate-to-strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35
   kt will support some organized structures given the favorable
   instability. 

   Details regarding how convection will evolve overnight remain highly
   uncertain. Storms will primarily be elevated given increasing
   MLCINH, but strong elevated buoyancy will still favor intense
   updrafts, with an initial hail risk. The magnitude of instability
   may also favor one or more modestly organized clusters, which would
   pose some damaging wind risk despite being somewhat elevated in
   nature. Watch issuance is possible for some portion of this area
   overnight if trends support a relatively long-lived cluster or MCS
   which would pose a more organized severe risk.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   LBF...

   LAT...LON   45659133 45299052 44629019 43659027 42729201 42639234
               42299371 42029472 41629645 41599703 41619800 42269832
               42709862 43259801 43969654 44739497 45619309 45659133