Mesoscale Discussion 1444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast MN...western WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100730Z - 100900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms continue to affect the MSP local
   area.  Small area of concern and uncertainty of longevity continue
   to weigh against watch issuance, but we continue to monitor.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of intense thunderstorms has been
   affecting the greater MSP region for several hours, producing
   isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.  These storms formed
   along/ahead of a cold front moving into the region, but have
   remained quite isolated in nature.  Larger-scale steering flow would
   tend to move these storms into western WI, where the air mass is
   slightly less unstable.  A more likely scenario is for storms to
   slowly develop southeastward along instability gradient along the MS
   River toward southwest WI, although time-of-day and poor CAM
   performance decrease confidence how much longer the storms can
   maintain severe intensity.

   We continue to monitor storms for upscale growth or a more
   widespread risk of severe storms through the overnight hours.

   ..Hart.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44699423 45309384 45299235 44609078 43509052 43479171
               43759299 44079373 44699423