Mesoscale Discussion 1445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast NE...Northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100819Z - 101015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage early
   this morning, along with the risk of a few severe thunderstorms. 
   Trends will be monitored for upscale growth and possible WW
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed in
   the past hour across southern SD and northeast NE.  This area is
   ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, and in region of
   isentropic lift behind the cold front - mainly in the 2-4 km layer. 
   Ample CAPE is indicated in forecast soundings over this region,
   along with steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer
   shear for convective organization.  Isolated instances of hail are
   the primary threat for now.  However, CAM solutions have suggested
   the potential for one or more of the clusters to grow upscale and
   become a bowing complex later this morning.  If this trend begins to
   unfold, a WW may be needed to cover the downstream threat.

   ..Hart.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43190137 43849774 43639521 42069610 42310073 43190137