Mesoscale Discussion 1448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0840 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western/central IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 101340Z - 101445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe/damaging wind threat should increase across parts
   of western/central IA this morning. Watch issuance will likely be
   needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A small, bowing MCS along the NE/IA border has recently
   produced a measured 50 kt wind gust at KSUX. Very steep mid-level
   lapse rates observed on the 12Z OAX sounding are supporting ample
   instability downstream of this convection across much of
   western/central IA. Even though outflow from prior convection has
   surged southward across this area, it still appears probable that
   strong to severe wind gusts will be able to penetrate the shallow
   near-surface stable layer and reach the surface given the large
   reservoir of instability present. The stronger mid-level flow
   associated with an upper trough will generally remain across MN and
   northern IA, but there should still be sufficient enhancement to the
   mid-level winds across central IA for continued
   organization/maintenance of the ongoing MCS. Accordingly, the threat
   for severe/damaging wind gusts is expected to increase across parts
   of western/central IA, and a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   downstream is likely soon.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41649590 42519485 43039481 43179332 42849302 41679247
               40669251 40639559 41649590