Mesoscale Discussion 1453
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin and U.P. Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101744Z - 101845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditions becoming more favorable for convective
   development this afternoon, with a risk for damaging winds and large
   hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows some clearing occurring across
   parts of central Wisconsin, allowing for some diabatic heating and
   temperatures into the mid 80s F amid rich boundary layer moisture
   (dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s). This has resulted in
   moderate destabilization of the atmosphere, with MLCAPE nearing 2500
   J/kg. Westerly flow aloft combined with low-level southerly flow is
   producing 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear across the region.

   Given the thermodynamic and kinematic environmental indices, any
   storms that develop in this region would pose a threat for damaging
   winds and isolated large hail. Recent CAM guidance supports the
   notion of convection developing and becoming more widespread in
   coverage by mid-afternoon. Therefore, conditions will continue to be
   monitored for probable watch issuance in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43328951 43549067 45458953 46588826 46448615 45408668
               43568795 43328951