Mesoscale Discussion 1459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin and portions of the U.P. and L.P.
   of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

   Valid 102046Z - 102215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds/hail continues across WW
   427. A downstream watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few strong to severe storms have
   developed across central/northern parts of WW 427, with convective
   activity associated with a severe MCS now moving into southern parts
   of the watch area. This activity is occurring in an environment
   characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and 30-35 kt of effective
   bulk shear, which is sufficient to sustain organized convection
   capable of damaging winds and severe hail.

   Storms are expected to continue moving from west to east across the
   watch area in advance of a cold front, with perhaps some increase in
   coverage. Uncertainty exists in whether or not the convection will
   persist as it crosses northern parts of Lake Michigan and entering
   into the L.P. of Michigan. Presently there exists a corridor of
   enhanced instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and nearly homogeneous
   effective shear (30-35 kt). These conditions are forecast to persist
   into the evening hours. Thus, should trends in convective
   coverage/intensity persist, a downstream watch may be considered for
   parts of the region.

   ..Karstens.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   46318421 46088384 45238329 43978394 43508473 43458600
               43428687 43738765 45738678 46458562 46668501 46318421