Mesoscale Discussion 1460
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Far northern Texas Panhandle into southern
   Kansas...northern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and extreme
   northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102150Z - 102315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Vigorous convective development and intensification is
   underway across parts of the southern Plains. Damaging gusts are the
   primary threat, with some severe hail possible as well. Convective
   trends will be monitored for the need of one or more WWs to address
   the increasing severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Rapid pulse cellular and multicellular development has
   been underway over the past couple of hours, situated within an
   instability axis ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Steep
   lapse rates (7.5-9 C/km) throughout a deep layer of the troposphere
   are currently supporting up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While tropospheric
   flow is weak overall, noticeable veering in the sfc-700 mb layer is
   promoting some deep-layer shear for marginal storm organization.
   Upscale growth of a few convective clusters via cold pool mergers
   are possible, where more concentrated damaging wind threats may
   ensue. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for
   upscale organization and the need of potential WW issuance over the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36410246 37600140 38340098 38079591 37719440 36989241
               36269206 35549243 35659363 36009600 36219955 36410246