Mesoscale Discussion 1462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0710 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle into
   western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110010Z - 110145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat persists across portions of the
   TX and OK Panhandles into western OK. There is some chance for a
   brief uptick in severe wind and possibly hail should short-term
   upscale growth continue. A WW may be needed to address this
   scenario.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular complexes, with a history of occasional
   severe wind/hail, persist across the TX/OK/KS border area. Latest
   mosaic composite radar imagery suggests that upscale growth of two
   separate clusters into a single cluster remains possible over the
   next hour or so as cold pools potentially merge, as also suggested
   by the last couple runs of the HRRR. Should this merger transpire,
   relatively steep low-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km per latest
   Mesoanalysis) would encourage additional evaporative cooling and
   efficient downward momentum transport to promote a brief but
   organized threat of damaging gusts, before instability wanes. Given
   that uncertainty in this scenario remains, convective trends will
   continue to be monitored for the possibility of a small, short-term
   WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35770199 37110119 37189906 37059824 36569783 35879759
               35369836 34999912 34819997 34770106 34860184 35070240
               35770199