Mesoscale Discussion 1463
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110016Z - 110215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A increase in strong/locally severe storm coverage is
   expected over the next 1 to 2 hours, before convection spreads
   across Lake Huron and into Ontario later tonight.  WW issuance is
   not expected, due to marginal/local/isolated nature of the risk for
   wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection increase across
   northern Lower Michigan, north and northeast of the comma head of
   the well-defined, bowing MCS crossing the southern half of the
   state.  

   Instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) across this region
   remains sufficient to support vigorous storms, but with rather
   modest (20 to 30 kt) deep-layer west-southwesterly flow across the
   area per latest APX WSR-88D VWP and model analyses, storms should
   remain only loosely organized.  While some attendant risk for
   gusty/possibly damaging winds may occur with the strongest storms,
   risk should remain limited/isolated such that WW issuance will
   likely not be needed.

   ..Goss.. 08/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43598675 44718670 45888494 45668286 44058320 43448458
               43598675