Mesoscale Discussion 1465
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the Ozark Plateau into the Ark-La-Tex and
   Mid South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111734Z - 112000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development through mid to late
   afternoon will mainly result in locally heavy rainfall, but there
   could also be at least some increase in potential for locally strong
   wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is
   ongoing, as inhibition for boundary-layer parcels characterized by
   seasonably high moisture content (lower/mid 70s F surface dew
   points) and sizable CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) decreases with
   daytime heating.  This is generally focused near a compact,
   convectively generated vorticity center to the west-northwest of the
   Missouri Bootheel vicinity, east-southeastward along a weak surface
   frontal zone across western into middle Tennessee.  A wind shift
   trailing to the southwest of the cyclonic vorticity center, across
   northern Arkansas is also becoming a focus for increasing
   thunderstorm development, while more substantive thunderstorm
   development is already well underway to the east and southeast of a
   broader convectively generated cyclonic vorticity center over
   northeastern Oklahoma.

   This is all occurring near the northwestern periphery of
   strong/deeper low-level subtropical ridging, and generally
   within/beneath broader-scale mid-level subtropical ridging. 
   Mid-levels are generally warm, with weak lapse rates and deep-layer
   ambient westerly mean flow only on the order of 10 kt.

   The overall environment appears generally unsupportive of
   appreciable severe weather potential.  However, a continued gradual
   increase and intensification of convective development seems
   probable through the afternoon.  And it is possible that merging
   convection and upscale convective growth could be accompanied by at
   least some increase in potential for locally strong surface gusts
   aided by heavy precipitation loading.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36019164 36409030 35608853 35028936 34939025 34829195
               34549298 34029347 33579460 33859581 34699554 34899455
               35559399 35999345 36319273 36019164