Mesoscale Discussion 1468
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0721 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...southwest
   Kansas...much of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120021Z - 120145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sparse damaging gusts and large hail may accompany the
   stronger storms. The very isolated nature of the severe threat
   precludes a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated supercellular structures have developed across
   portions of the southern High Plains over the past couple of hours.
   These storms have been gradually intensifying in an ambient
   thermodynamic environment characterized by steep low and mid-level
   lapse rates (8-9 C/km in a deep layer), contributing up to 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE in some spots. A dry sub-cloud layer extending up to 500 mb
   suggests that storms will remain high-based in nature, with
   sufficient evaporative cooling to support stronger downdrafts and
   associated gusty winds (some perhaps marginally severe). A couple
   severe hail stones may also be observed with the stronger storms,
   though melting/evaporation through the aforementioned deep sub-cloud
   layer should limit hail size to some degree. Given the isolated
   nature of the convection, and given the expected increasing in CINH
   (which should result in a weakening trend after sunset), the severe
   threat appears limited enough such that a WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   33460281 36460294 37580269 37760189 37710120 37430072
               36910053 35380061 34250084 33270129 33140228 33460281