Mesoscale Discussion 1471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Virginia northeastward through New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121715Z - 121915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually deepening convection will pose a risk of
   damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.  The isolated nature of
   the threat precludes a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Strong buoyancy has developed along and south of a weak
   surface boundary over southern Pennsylvania/New York, where
   mid/upper 70s F surface dewpoints was contributing to 3000+ J/kg
   MUCAPE.  This unstable, uncapped airmass has supported isolated to
   scattered convective development, although deep layer shear is quite
   weak.  The environment should support occasional, 'pulse-type'
   storms that pose a brief damaging-wind threat but migrate/propagate
   erratically in and near the discussion area through the afternoon. 
   The threat should be too isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, and
   the threat should persist through the early evening until nocturnal
   boundary layer stabilization commences.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...
   GSP...

   LAT...LON   37108104 37968012 39527797 40177628 40587480 40457400
               39937396 39367449 38677605 37847718 36757863 36068003
               35868125 36238174 37108104