Mesoscale Discussion 1472
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern South Dakota into western
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122228Z - 130000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or severe hailstones may accompany
   the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain
   relatively sparse overall.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have initiated off of the higher
   terrain in far eastern Wyoming over the past few hours, with a
   gradual uptick in coverage and intensity noted. 20Z RAP forecast
   soundings depict a deep, dry boundary layer, with 7-9 C/km deep
   tropospheric lapse rates contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, but
   also considerable CINH given the aforementioned mixing. As such,
   individual convective cells may struggle in obtaining longevity, as
   also depicted by some of the latest HRRR runs. However, given
   adequate buoyancy and the well mixed boundary layer, stronger storms
   may efficiently transport momentum downward to support damaging
   gusts. Some of the deeper cores could also briefly support severe
   hail given the steeper lapse rates extending up to 500 mb. Storms
   are expected to diminish after sunset, as CINH rapidly increases.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41080376 42030364 43000307 43970201 44320075 44260012
               44119986 43949977 43699981 43169996 41700079 40920154
               40360192 40400268 40690353 41080376