Mesoscale Discussion 1475
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast KS...Eastern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130935Z - 131130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Increased potential for damaging wind gusts exists across
   east-central OK. Large hail remains the primary threat across
   northeast OK and southeast KS.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have
   persisted over the last several hours from southeast KS into
   northeast/east-central OK. Development of these storms is being
   supported by a moderately strong low-level jet extending from the
   southern TX Panhandle northeastward into north-central OK. These
   storms were initially elevated above a warm layer between 850 and
   700 mb. However, continued storm development over the same location
   has likely led to a cooling and moistening of this layer, lowering
   storm bases and contributing to an increase potential for strong
   wind gusts. Occurrence of this scenario is evidenced by recent
   surface observations, with the Tulsa Mesonet site measuring a 64 mph
   gust around 0825Z and Bixby Mesonet site measuring a 61 mph gust
   around 0855Z. Given these trends and recent increase in
   southeasterly storm motion, an increased probability of strong to
   severe wind gusts will exist downstream across east-central OK for
   at least the next hour or so. Environmental conditions remain
   supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms upstream across
   northeast OK into southeast KS. Large hail is the primary threat
   with these storms, although some damaging wind gust potential also
   exist. Additionally, the heavy, training precipitation may lead to
   flash flooding, as addressed in Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion
   623 from WPC.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35489629 36489673 37609688 38149674 38299635 37629543
               35319450 34649542 35489629