Mesoscale Discussion 1476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

   Areas affected...northwest KS into southwestern/central NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132006Z - 132200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and
   strong wind gusts are possible through this evening across portions
   of western NE/KS.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated towering cumulus have been developing along
   the surface trough/dryline oriented north-to-south across western NE
   and KS. A few lightning flashes have been noted with a cell that has
   deepened considerably over Cheyenne County KS and across McPherson
   County NE within the last 30-45 minutes. Isolated convection may
   continue to develop along the instability gradient where midlevel
   capping has sufficiently eroded due to a combination of strong
   heating and low-level east/southeasterly upslope flow transporting
   upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints westward to near the KS/NE/CO
   border. 

   18z RAP forecast soundings, modified with current surface
   conditions, indicate only weak inhibition across the region. Deep
   layer flow is not strong, but sufficient directional shear is
   resulting in effective shear values around 25-30 kt. This should be
   sufficient for briefly organized updrafts. Very steep midlevel lapse
   rates and increasing instability with eastward extent will further
   result in robust updrafts capable of large hail. Steep low level
   lapse rates could also enhance downdrafts, and strong outflow winds
   also are possible. While a couple of severe storms are possible,
   watch issuance is uncertain at this time given cellular activity is
   expected to remain fairly isolated. Additionally, inhibition
   increases rapidly with eastward extent further from the trough
   axis/dryline, limiting longevity and aerial extent of the threat.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 08/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38860110 38610159 38630197 38930204 39760207 40330191
               41430156 42120106 42440057 42420004 42179959 41649945
               41039955 40699969 40189995 39250079 38860110