Mesoscale Discussion 1482
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern ND and northern SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

   Valid 140712Z - 140845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible with
   storms moving eastward across southern North Dakota and northern
   South Dakota early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of semi-discrete storms is ongoing
   along the ND/SD border early this morning ahead of a strong
   shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/Plains. Effective bulk
   shear around 45 kt shown on the 06Z BIS special sounding will
   continue to support the supercell structures observed so far. Steep
   mid-level lapse rates of 7.8 C/km were also observed on the 06Z BIS
   sounding, which is promoting substantial MUCAPE to the south of a
   reinforcing cold front draped across ND. Large hail will remain a
   threat so long as storms remain semi-discrete. Severe winds from
   thunderstorm downdrafts may also occur, as the near-surface stable
   layer remains quite shallow. Multiple measured wind gusts of 55-65
   mph have already been reported with this convection, and current
   expectations are for similar values to remain possible for at least
   the next couple of hours as storms generally track eastward along an
   elevated instability gradient near the ND/SD border. The reinforcing
   cold front across central ND will likely serve as a northern limit
   for any meaningful severe threat.

   ..Gleason.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45690286 45840327 46880214 46920060 46820012 46549986
               45929988 45720021 45690286